FWIW I think VSGN will live or die with Oracle's Network
Computing vision. If network computing takes hold, this is
a great stock to own. Otherwise it will languish.
...The great potential is there, but again, it only will truly take
hold when the greatest obstacle (lack of bandwidth for the
masses) is removed.
I don't think that the network computing or bandwidth factors are nearly as important for Visignenic's near-term growth as is the rapid growth of enterprise-class distributed object programming. Java is becoming an important force in the rapid design and deployment of intranet-based, enterprise-wide distributed systems, and for these systems to work, you either need the OMG's CORBA standard or Microsoft's DCOM technology to wire together objects on the network. The problem with DCOM is that it still lacks the cross-platform strength of CORBA.
Visigenic's Visibroker software is a key player in the CORBA market, along with Iona's Orbix. It appears that Visigenic may have gained significant momentum through its partnerships with Netscape and Oracle, helping increase its mindshare relative to Orbix.
Check out the incredible license revenue growth Visigenic has enjoyed for the past five fiscal quarters:
Q1 1997 : $932,000
Q2 1997 : $1,740,000
Q3 1997 : $2,185,000
Q4 1997 : $3,237,000
Q1 1998 : $4,351,000
That's a very healthy growth rate. Consulting revenue for the last quarter was also about $1.2 million. Total revenues were thus about $5.56 million.
I think the main thing that has been holding Visigenic back relative to other Internet stocks has been the fact that:
1) nobody on Wall Street knows who this company is, because
2) nobody on Wall Street understands what it does.
Wall Street needs a good story to launch a great stock. But try telling someone that Visigenic is "a major, growing force in the object request broker distributed computing market!" Then watch their eyes glaze over as they stare at you incomprehensively, and impatiently ask you in an annoyed voice to start speaking English.
I can't say I blame them-- I myself have programmed computers for many years, but it took me several weeks of reading about this technology before I began to see its incredible potential for revolutionizing the entire software technology business.
Here's my attempt at an English-language story for Visigenic:
Have you ever seen the inside of a computer? Have you ever noticed how it contained hundreds of separate parts, chips, transistors, diodes, hard drives, memory chips, all made by different manufacturers, but all wired together and living on the same piece of circuit board? Hardware has been designed this way for years-- it's easy, efficient, and cost effective to wire the off-the-shelf pieces together. It lets an engineer design new, complex hardware without the wasted effort of redesigning every single little component every time he wants to build a new device.
Visigenic's software allows the software industry to finally experience the same efficient design process that the hardware industry has enjoyed for years. By letting you wire software components together, Visigenic's software allows you to create new, complex applications in a fraction of the time it has taken up till now.
The truly amazing thing is that Visigenic doesn't limit this wiring concept to a single computer on a network, but extends it to every single computer on that network. In other words, Visigenic's technology now lets you rapidly design software that runs not only on a single PC, but across the entire planet. Visigenic's technology is quickly becoming the wiring standard for a new generation of global software applications.
...Now THAT sounds like a story!
Monir |
