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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (6597)	11/1/2002 1:33:25 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95530

The market is always manipulated. Right now we are starting what is traditionally an excellent period of time for long investors in the market. November through April I mean. In fact we got an early start after the bottom we saw in early October. This has happened despite a pretty gloomy outlook from most semiconductor related companies. It's easy to see that there has been lots of institutional and retail buying of these stocks. No one wants to miss the next bull market. They don't want to miss it even if they have missed 40% of the gains already. Now if we can get some good economic numbers, a resolution to the tensions in Iraq, some positive thinking about pension funds and stock option expensing, then the technical picture is still favorable enough that we could overcome the distribution and bearish divergences. I believe much more in technical analysis than fundamental analysis but ultimately market direction will be ruled by fundamentals. Have we got good enough fundamentals for the market to continue to rise? Not yet in my opinion but things could easily improve. Even so, there is a lot to overcome here. Last year at this time we were in the midst of a post 9/11 rally that was supported by economic growth in many areas. Where is the growth now? Maybe it is coming. Maybe that is why the market continues to rally. The September SIA data may support this thinking. Anyway, I think you do not give yourself enough credit. You should post as often as you feel like you have something to contribute. What you have to say, your charts, the bp data, and all that you contribute by finding insight on other threads are all greatly appreciated by more than just me you can be sure. I'm sure you have already seen this but others may have missed Ike Iossif explaination of the conditions presently at work that could result in a blow off type of move. traders-talk.com RtS

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