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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 74.72-0.7%Jan 7 3:59 PM EST
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (66062)8/26/2004 11:05:43 AM
From: davidtrx   of 77400
 
Unfortunately, I taught an advanced course in statistics at the university level, and collaborated in some groundbreaking work in decision processes

[mindmeld:] >>Spoken like someone with no training in statistics. :)<<

I'm not a daytrader. I've never investigated the process. I view the activity with suspicion. I have however traded on the floor of several exchanges and at times it felt like the same thing

[mindmeld:] >>impossible for them to make money daytrading over the long term<<

Well spoken. Often in life, the sense of control over our affairs that we experience is indeed an illusion. I've become increasingly convinced of that the older I get. Run from anyone who suggests otherwise

[Mindmeld:] >>control is simply an illusion of the intellectually bankrupt<<

Let me quote from something I have written elsewhere: "The future is not known but a sophisticated understanding of the past can provide important insights which can influence present decisions in a way which tends to enhance future outcomes"

I'm always troubled when people speak with certitude about a stock ("this stock is going to 100... a triple... "). I try to speak in terms of probabilities, not only because under the best of circumstances that's all I can know, but also to make clear the uncertainties associated with the process of investing

[mindmeld:]>>Claiming to predict the future for profit has been a charlatan's game . . .<<

--
David
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