115 electoral college votes are up for grabs in these nine swing states. Assuming there are no upsets in the other 41 states, Obama will need a further 53 votes to reach the winning line, whereas Romney would need 64. Without a significant turnaround, it is hard to see where the Republican will find that many.
As it stands, none of the nine definitively favour Romney. Of the biggest three, Pennslyvania (20 votes) looks solid Obama; meaning Romney will almost certainly need to win both Florida (29) and Ohio (18). These are both possible, but the President has been ahead in four out of six polls conducted inFlorida since the start of May. Ohio - one of only two which are effectively tied - is more promising.
Elsewhere, even states Romney might have expected to win are going badly. Nevada (6), for instance, has a big Mormon population and a floundering economy, yet every poll this year has favoured Obama. New Hampshire (4) kickstarted Romney's successful Primary campaign and he was Governor in the neighbouring state, yet three out of four polls since the start of May favour Obama by an average of 6%.
Alternatively, it is easy to map Obama's route to victory. In addition to Pennsylvania, the President is heavy favourite in Wisconsin (10) and Colorado (9). Those three states would leave him just 14 votes short - meaning he could possibly even afford to lose both Florida and Ohio. Obama is a 1.5 chance in Virginia (13), for example, where success would take him within 1 vote of overall victory
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