Yes that's what i mean, take the valuations with a ton of salt, it seems Black-Scholes has no quantified input function for common sense -g- ... although, it could be argued that eight and a half years of warrant duration gives it virtually the same value as the common, at this point ... but people are never going to think like that, i've been following these wts since they came out in summer '07 and it's all about gearing imho - while the common-to-wt ratio has dipped below 3, it's never stayed below 4 for very long ... nor stayed above 4.5 for very long either, until last fall, these figures should be the norm the wts return to as the common recovers to those levels[?] ... e.g. with common at 10, wts at 3.50 or better means let a few go, under 2.50 means add some
They're more liquid now, probably more of them are in retail hands ... starting out, they were highly illiquid, traded only at bid or only at ask for weeks at a time ... i was playing specialist for much of that, had in best bid and best offer, several times had orders put in good for thirty days go unfilled ... but then came the merger, may through july i must have had two dozen round trips, probably rolled over entire position three times at least, at hefty spreads, so it doesn't owe me anything
Lassonde and Schulich each hold 6m of the common, given their histories that makes for decent odds imho, especially when you look at quality of assets ... big part of upside is in copper, at New Afton and El Morro, so that may take a little while to bear fruit, but when it does they'll make the thing rain money for sure
James West piece on ngd [he likes ktn.v too among his top ten, fwiw] -
seekingalpha.com |
