Here is another (IMHO) excellent post from HARDDATA on the MF board ( aol )
tim
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Subject: Re: absence
Date: Thu, Feb 12, 1998 2:32 AM
From: Harddata
Some long time residents on the BTIM board have been concerned by my recent absence on the board. If one looks at the history of this stock and my activity on the board, significant declines in share price have often led to my temporary absense. It is not unusual for one to add to there positions on weakness and if that is the case there is no reason to tip others off as to ones activities. Enough said.
I would argue that BTIM represents one of if not the best investment in the biotech sector for the following reasons. What the "experts" typically look for in a biotech investment is late stage products, a product pipline, and a corporate partner to provide the validation that many investors need to feel comfortable. This company embodies all of the above. Hextend has successfully completed phase 3 clinical trials in the US and a pharmacokinetic
study in the UK. One can sort through all of the nonsense and background noise raised during the conference call after the results but these are some of the facts. This was a pivotal phase 3 trial that the FDA agreed to and signed off on. This wass not a physician sponsored IND or some small dose ranging/fact finding study. Thus while the N value of patients was modest by many standards, it is all that the FDA required. period. BTIM has a pipeline
which manifests via two means. Hextend will have multiple clinical indications down the road beyond the initial indication as a colloidal volume expander. The beauty of this is that in order to get a label expansion they must only submit a supplemental filing. (quick and dirty) Pentalyte is clearly in the que to move into clinical trials in the near term. The fact that ABT maintained the rights to pentalyte is significant beyond what most realize.
Rasoning as follows. There are no patents out there to block ABT from taking a pentastarch in a normal saline solvent and marketing that product on their own and avoiding paying BTIM a nickel. BTIM has a dominant patent positon for the use of a pentastarch in a physiologic solution across a range of electrolyte values. This is big, to the extent that physiologically balanced electrolytes are advantageous over non physiologic solutions BTIM will be
the gate keeper to the market. Another event that will be explosive is as follows. If one looks back at the stock and what has driven the valuation the trigger for a big appreciaiton was the publicaiton of the critical care medicine paper. All it will take is for those results to be replicated in a human study when this product is on the market and this product will have the potential to become "standard of care". If that was to occur even the most
bullish of expectations would pale to reality. Other overlooked factors are the demographics of colloid vs crystalloid us outside the US. In Japan for "cultural" reasons very little human albumin is used. As a manifestation of this Green Cross has licensed from Enzon the rights to manufacture and market recombinant human albumin. The non albumin colloid opportunity is immense in Japan. In Europe because of differences in clinial practice on a % basis
of crystalloids to colloids there is far more colloid used. Another immense opportunity. In the US the opportunity is so large that Genzyme Transgenics is breedingtransgenic goats to produce human albumin. They estimate the worldwide market in excess of 2 billion for albumin alone. Think about this for a minute, a goat derived human albumin product. With all of the concerns about CJD. prion disease, someone is going to try to get a goat derived human
albumin through the FDA. The cost of the recombinant human albumin that Enzon has patents on is so expensive thay are not even pursuing FDA approval to market it in the US. Last but not least BTIM has ABT as a marketing partner in the US and will soon have partners in Japan and Europe and Latin America. Given the royalty stream that they negotiated from ABT it does not take alot of sales to make the company wildly profitable.
I just received a phone call today that the company is going on a road show next week through New York for several days. The company is now armed with phase 3 data to present ot investors, no mystery, no risk of a blow up, just a matter of recognizing an opportunity.
Oh yea, give me that short story one more time.
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