America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: Follies who wrote (6627)	12/31/1997 1:54:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	of 13594

Dale, I like your radio analogy, except the situation is even worse for AOL than you paint it. What makes a TV station, for example, valuable is the limited amount of spectrum. Only so many stations can be on the air at any given time. Cyberspace obvious has unlimited spectrum. Indeed, though I'm in California, I occasionally listen to a New Orleans Jazz station. Following your "growth of radio" story, eventually everybody's got a radio and everybody knows how to use it. The parade of newbies dwindles. KAOL starts losing more "oldbies" than it is gaining newbies. There are real-life comparisons, of course. The impact of cable on TV networks comes to mind. There is also some evidence in the recent quarter that the five largest ISPs saw the dramatic growth of subscribers fall off. Nevertheless, as I said in a previous post, I expect AOL to crack $100/shr ahead of this quarter's earnings announcement due to Wall Street hype. Best -Steve

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