Technical Comment:
In looking at the AMD 1 year chart, one can see that AMD experienced 5 months of significant price appreciation between November '99 and April '00, ostensibly owing to the "bright prospects" for flash and Athy derivatives...Since April, AMD has been in a 5 month consolidation phase between $30 and $48.50, ostensibly owing to a slowing semiconductor marketplace (according to JJ at SSB) and perhaps the also the "all too veiled threat in retrospect" of imminent and meaningful competition to the Athy...Now that 5 months has elapsed, and neither has either threat (i.e. slowdown, competition to Athy) materialized meaningfully, nor has there been any sign indicating any meaningful interuption in Athy's ascent to microprocessor supremacy and, in fact, Athy's ascent to supremacy seems to be accelerating if tomorrow's 1.1 gig release is any "here and now" indicator, we may be entering the final stages of the consolidation between $30 and $48.50...
Given that AMD's product lineup is the strongest in its history and given the apparent ease with which AMD is able to bring to the marketplace retail quantities of higher MHz Athys and is promising to do so in 100 MHz increments over the next 5 months, one might not unreasonably conclude that an AMD price revaluation is likely not too distant...Just as the AMD price accelerated during the period between November and April during which AMD introduced Athy's in 100 MHz increments from 500 Mhz to 1000 MHZ, it is perhaps not unreasonable to anticipate another AMD price acceleration of equal or greater percentage price appreciation over the next 5 month period between September and January as Athys are brought to the marketplace, once again in 100 MHz increments, only this time from 1.1 gig to 1.5 gigs and in a segment in which the PWeeiii plain and simply cannot compete owing to its architectural constraints...
AMD price appreciated about 2.5 times between November and April...A similar price appreciation over the next 5 months would take AMD to the $80 to $90 range...I, for one, would argue that AMD now is much, much stronger (i.e. didn't one analyst suggest AMD's next 6 months "bulletproof" ...i.e certainly not the case being put forth last November by analysts)and, as such, would not rule out as wholly unlikely a price target of $80 to $90 by the end of January...(I still like the odds of $75 by the end of December)...
Tomorrow AMD kicks-off the fall season with their new 1.1 gig Athy...a fall season which promises to include several additional "showstoppers" before the "regular season" concludes...I certainly do like the existing odds for AMD winning the "superbowl in microprcessors" this year... |
