Doug, I WILL take a stab at your puzzle!!! :
a: Does the collapse of certain areas of the globe have a deeper impact on us than anticipated. (now @1.5%+ GDP)
Answer yes. Read Barron's editorial;, i.e., " their silence is deafening:
Message 5796368
b: Will external pricing pressure be enough to curb any internal wage growth demands.
Answer: yes, but only over several months. Not quick enough for Alan to make up his mind now about
cutting interest rates. Look at the increasing No of increasingly strident strikes recently: GM,
Northwest
c: Required Leadership in Russia, USA and Japan appears to be non existent.
Answer: Agree. They are all out to lunch. Some, in the US, like Billy, at times are out to in the
windowless hallway adjacent to the Oral Orifice
d: Our stock markets have not capitulated like the rest. Historically,
that divergence cannot be maintained.
Answer: Agree; This is why the Market will retouch it's lows, and maybe go though them in the next 3
Months. This will be in coincidence with tax-loss selling season and Billy's resignation?or
impeachment farewell speech .
e: The coffers of the IMF need to be replenished if Latin America/Asia are to be helped .
Answer: There isn't a chance of a snowflake in hell that the IMF will see even a copper nickel of US
Tax-payer money, IMHO. With the backdrop of fear of falling stock prices the US Taxpayer
will say " nada ", " no ", niente" buddy. The Democratic party will still be shell shocked by
Billy to figure out what hit them to ask for more money from IMF. And the Republicans are
going to be more concerned about a tax cut and the old favorite, " saving Social Security, GG ,".
Furthermore the amount of money needed to save LatinAmerica, Asia, Russia etc. ( they
are all tied in it ), will make your aunt Nelly have a coronary.
Thus, I feel that what will happen is that we will all be powerless and be forced to see this market go down a total of 35 - 40 % and then slowly recover. And don't forget y2k,
TA
|
