>> If you wish to criticize my outlook it can be found here:
How about discuss, instead of criticize.
Taking AMAT's sales, and estimating EPS from that.
I've selectively re-arranged your data. Sales are AMAT's in $billions. EPS is AMAT's in $.
Year , Sales , EPS
---- , ----- , ---
1999 , 5.09 , 0.44
2000 , 9.56 , 1.20
2001 , 7.34 , 0.59
2002 , 5.10 , 0.18 est.
2003 , 5.60 , 0.35 est.
2004 , 6.90 , 0.55 est.
It seems you are assuming that approx $7B of sales will result in $0.55/sh net profit.
I think that underestimates the earnings. The reason that $7.34 B is sales generated only $0.59 in EPS (in 2001) is that the company was staffed for $9B sales level. And they had not yet made reductions. So a plausible (optimistic) estimate of EPS in 2004 is $0.80, if optimal staffing and cost controls are in place.
Sarmad |
