Bill,
I'm still studying BNS, mostly to see if it would have suggested buying into my current holdings, but also WRT my watch list. I never seem to see all indicators moving into the upper right corner at the same time (StdDev is most frequent holdout), except for CREAF as of the last few days.
I'd be curious in your feedback as to whether I'm using the indicators in the same way you might for this particular issue. I first purchased CREAF back in March when I detected a cyclic nature in its price movement and trading volume (used my spooky FFT techniques), and bought in at around 9. Enjoyed a rapid run up prior to bailing out at 18, mostly because I wasn't sure what to look for and wanted to run with my gains.
Well, late in July (post TAOTN awakening) I bought in again at around 16 because all my new found techniques made it looked strong in spite of the pull back (consolodation?). I've held it through some the recent stagnation as the BBands tightened. I held it mostly because CREAF: has great products, has had good press lately, and I think the stock is grossly under valued (I consider fair market value to be $35/share based on fundies). Well, this week it all payed off as it soared 30% (to 27.6), and lo and behold all of the BNS indiators are bunched up in the upper right corner. I'm again tempted to take profits, but don't want to if large numbers if bystanders are about to buy in and push the price up further.
My real question is can I use BNS to detect a down turn as well? I'd like to not jump ship prematurely, but I'd also hate to go down with it. Based on looking at BNS of CREAF in the 12/96, 3/97, and 7/97 time frames I'd expect the Chaikn Osc and Ultimate Osc to show the first signs of weakness, and then the MACD(5,35,4) to trigger my exit.
(CCI(13) doesn't seem to lead on this one if I'm reading it right).
Is this a reasonable way to be using BNS?
|
