Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

-0.2%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (6675)	11/3/2002 10:13:16 PM
From: robert b furman	of 95541

HI Cary, Excellent question. In 98 my view was very tunneled in three or four stocks : I owned Asyt Cohu and Adex. But in 98 Q4 was quite universally known to be a loser quarter - much like now - most hoped to cut the losses. In 99 Q1 backlogs grew and earnings stopped bleeding red as backlogs grew. Q2 showed a nice return to general profitability and continued backlog growth. Key point i'm trying to make is expectations drove the price up in anticipation of the increased sales revenues and profits. There was no gong at the reversal point - in fact it was quite a wall of justified worry that was climbed. Many features of 98's bottom are seen in 02 bottom.A failed Rally in 97 that resulted in a vicious double bottom in June (Intel's low) and October (Amat's low) of 98 - MUCH like 01's failed rally of 9/11 with July and October of 02's vicious double bottoms. My bet is we will reached the 200 day maoving averages of this sector and indexes.We'll have a wall of worry that will max out at March 03 and if we have earnings and backlogs we'll get legs.Prewarnings of Q1 03 should bounce off of the 50 day ma. If not we'll see a retest of October 02 lows.In failed Rallys of major proportions one must always expect a violation of the previous low. The purpose of a failed rally is to shake out weak holders - a violation of past lows is part of the game - if not enjoy the exception.In between always expect it. JMHO Bob

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