Tenchusatsu,
<I only have one problem with your argument. You're assuming that for the high-end, it's an "either-or" situation for OEM's.>
Actually, the more recent data seems to be support that high end is shrinking as a percent of the overall market. No one splits out the high -end numbers but if I were to take a conservative hack in favor of high speed parts to say that the speed distribution of PIIIs might look something like below:
Highest speed grade: 20%
Mid-grade: 40%
Lowest-grade: 40%
So, in Q3 in Intel ships, say, 12Mu PIIIs, roughly 2.5Mu will be at the highest speed grade. This number should grow for Q4, but nonetheless, losing 1Mu in this market segment would be a very big deal.
<Oh, and one more thing. Intel's lowest price for Celeron is $67. Vendors might resell it at a loss, but unless Intel is giving its customers undisclosed discounts, there's no way on Earth that the average selling price of Celeron is "sub-$70" as you hint.>
OEM prices are typically well below the retail pricing we get to see. You had a post earlier where the median price was sub-$100. Typically the volume distribution favors the low end parts so the ASPs tend to be lower than the median speed-grade price.
Actually, the situation is probably worse because, in today's market the growth is mostly in the $399-$599 PCs. Which means the ASP is probably going to be skewed to some number *well below* the median price. Now, on the top of that add whatever OEM discount you might want to add. (I would guess about 15%)
Chuck |
