Record Year In IPO Market Produces Average Returns 01/10/1997 Dow Jones International News (Copyright (c) 1997, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.) reprinted with permission
NEW YORK (AP-Dow Jones)--The new-issues market set records for the number of deals priced and net proceeds raised in 1996, but aftermarket performance was about average, making it a great year for underwriters and a so-so year for many investors.
Strong inflows to mutual funds drove the market, and underwriters met the demand for new equity by cranking out as many deals as possible. The result was a wave of winners - and a stunning stream of sinners that pulled down average aftermarket gains.
In 1996, a total of 865 initial public offerings raised $48.9 billion, eclipsing the previous record set in 1993, when 707 deals raised $41.4 billion, Securities Data Co. of Newark, N.J., reported.
'High valuations provided a tremendous incentive for companies to go public in 1996,' said Robert Natale, editor of Standard & Poor's market guide Emerging and Special Situations. 'It will be very hard for the new-issues market to duplicate the money raised in 1996. I think 1997 will see a more favorable story in the performance of IPOs from the offering price. Last year, investment bankers danced in the aisles - but investors did only slightly better than the overall market. In 1997, I think we'll see fewer offerings, but those priced will do somewhat better overall.'
Many analysts expect the IPO market to drift through much of the first quarter but to gain strength later in the year. After a slow start, look for continued strength in wireless communications, especially equipment and software, and computer networking.
American depositary receipts, backed by high valuations in the U.S., will continue to be attractive to overseas companies seeking to raise capital and are likely to find eager buyers. 'I think we'll see a continuation of huge international deals,' said George Constantine, senior analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co.
Look for more deals like Deutsche Telekom AG (DT), Compania Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (VNT) and Vimpel Communications A.O. (VIP), a provider of cellular phone service and the first Russian company to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Analysts said there are no deals in registration that are creating a buzz among investors. Don't expect icon-quality deals like Netscape Communications Corp. (NSCP) or Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU) to spark interest among investors and ignite the market.
'It will be difficult to find any quality movements at the beginning of the year,' said Steven Samblis , president of Samblis Financial Corp. in Longwood, Fla. 'I think there will be a lot of uncertainty in the first half of the first quarter, but once a trend is identifiable, there's a lot of cash out there.'
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