Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 175.16

-0.1%

Dec 23 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6715)	8/18/1998 1:28:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	of 10921

I am not qualified to answer all of your questions, but I do have two comments: <<INTC parts, are reported to be in limited supply so the prices should be stable.>> This is only true of higher-end machines. PII 266 and 300 are in short supply, and faster chips are proprietary. Anything slower is, the best I can tell, under intense price pressure due to AMD/Cyrix-Nat'l/IDT. <<Wouldn't all of the above start putting the squeeze on the boxmakers', who had been benefiting from dropping component prices?>> I think this is starting to happen right now. There's going to be some shakeout. There was a great article on Solectron in the WSJ this morning, and I think boxmakers are eventually going to face a transition involving razor-thin margins, where only those with excellent cost management and production-distribution modelling will prosper. If the Japanese and Koreans weren't in such dismal financial straights, we might have started to see a shift to their boxes. Personally, I think the first to fall will be those with less than excellent product reputations. Myself, I wouldn't buy a Packard Bell, AST or Acer under any circumstances, and my experience with Compaq will also lead me to look elsewhere the next time I buy.

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