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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 687.70

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (67182)	1/19/2001 5:35:19 AM
From: craig crawford	of 99985

>> Waiting for next week to start ot buy puts, it is again a manic market << We've barely even retraced half the losses of the last 4 1/2 months and you think the market is manic? >> ... meet expectation with flat Y to Y earnings and you get a 5% to 10% in market cap, on top of the 20% or so recovery << Well it's not all that surprising when you think about it. Everyone in the world knew that earnings and outlooks were going to be terrible. People didn't actually want to wait until the bad news was sprung on them so they figured they would jump the gun and sell ahead of earnings. That just leaves a nice situation for the bulls where there are no sellers left and just a bunch of greedy shorts who have had it too good for too long. That is all you need for the makings of a vicious rally. >> .. and I was thinking recession is around the corner << Usually when big time companies and brokerages start talking big about a recession and everyone believes it, pricing in the worst scenario, that is the time to buy. Look at this headline from JP Morgan Oct 8th, 1998 before the market opened. The market bottomed that very day and never looked back. Newsflash *J.P. Morgan sees recession ahead * J.P. Morgan has forecast a recession in 1999, becoming the first major U.S. investment bank to predict a downturn in the U.S. economy next year. The bank says it expects the economy to stall in the first quarter of 1999 and then shrink at a 2% annual rate in the second quarter and a 1% rate in the third quarter. J.P. Morgan cites deteriorating export markets, a squeeze on corporate profits, falling stock prices and tightening of bank lending standards as some of the reasons for its recession forecast.

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