The article has a lot of truth to it but ignores a discussion about how the market is diverging into several product areas. I think the PC is becoming more and more of a commodity product with severe price presures similar to VCR's, , microwaves, etc. But there are also thriving PC workstation, server, telecom/server convergent PBX products, and mainframe replacement networks that will expand to the upside.
I agree completely that the major show stopper to industry expansion is internet/telco bandwidth. The race for increasing internet bandwidth has just begun, probably a full couple of years after many thought it would. Standards have just recently been decided upon for ADSL and other XDSL high-speed POTS wireline services that should deliver around 1.4 GB/s thru the average household/business phone connection, ADSL and other cable modem technologies are now ready to move forward at costs similar to 56K modems, three world-wide satelite systems are being implemented by Motorola, Alcatel, and Teledesic, and bandwidth has been allocated for a few competing land based wireless "last-mile" data+telco systems.
We should see a relative explosion in bandwidth that will become available at competitive prices over the next few years. That should greatly expand the need for mid to high-end storage sub-systems.
What I believe we are seeing is a short term shakeout that will lead to fewer players. Prices for desktop drives will remain low but markets will continue to expand for DLT and high-end drives. |
