Chaz,
I wish such a thing were possible, but there are so may variables that I fear it isn't. At least, I would look long and hard at any such model if I saw it. For example, we now have an apparent shortage of capacity for flash memory chips. How long will that last? Will the Koreans, Japanese and Chinese/Taiwanese who are beginning to build new capacity there overbuild the way they did with DRAMs? Or will they show more restraint? When will that capacity come on line? How will the announcement made just today (the alliance between Matsushita,, Toshiba and Sandisk) affect Sandisk's licensing revenues, or will they continue? Did Sandisk perhaps give up some of that [pure profit] revenue in return for establishing sons of CF and MMC as future standards?
Another example: Until a couple of months ago, MP3 was a distant rumble to me, and, I suspect, to many of the people at Sandisk as well. Now it is music to our ears, so to speak. How many other applications like that will come along that none of us can think of? I have been banking on cell phones as the killer app which would establish flash in the mind of Wall Street, now I see "entertainment" got there first. I still think cell phones and PDAs will kick in beginning this winter, and gather more and more steam as the year goes on.
I also think that there will be numerous applications that we haven't thought of. I know that sounds like typical nebulous "net-think", and I hate doing it. But I force myself in this case because the potential seems at once unquantifiable and real. I'll have to live with my discomfort for awhile, I guess.
Good luck,
Sam |
