Z, I can only answer in generalities since I no longer work and
don't have useful industry connections.
Re >can companies like Maxtor or Samsung, with a history of not doing well, suddenly get close to the same level of costs when they suddenly have products with the same areal densities?<
When you say "not doing well" I assume you mean quality. Quality
is harder to achieve as densities rise, because of smaller
tolerances in manufacturing. Even experienced, vertically
integrated companies like IBM have (and I assume will continue to)
had sudden yield problems in all areas (head, disk or HDA).
You can't use new hires to solve them, hard won experience
is key. That's why people who were good at IBM used to get
constant calls from head hunters. So, yes - if Maxtor and
Samsung have quality problems at lower densities, it will
get worse at higher densities. This may not become obvious
to outsiders, but low mfg yield will sure hurt the bottom line.
What is your perspective on the longer term competitve threat from IBM and are there any indications that they are holding back on production due to the pricing environment. (Acting responsibly to use the industry's terminology).
I don't know if IBM is holding back. I cannot envision them as
ever engaging in predatory pricing. They also have such high
internal consumption that capacity constraints may exist. They
were buying drives from others (Quantum comes to mind) a few
years ago. I don't know if they still do.
Since the big three are loaded with former IBMers, I think
they pretty much understand IBM's mind set. As a holder of
QNTM I'm worried about cheap competition from abroad, not IBM.
GM |
