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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: NOW who wrote (67902)3/5/2003 4:36:20 PM
From: mishedlo   of 209892
 
cant help but feel that everyone is too bearish here: either we are supposed to think the recognition wave is upon us (unlikely given liquidity and sentiment) or that inverse H&S is aboutr to give bears a real asshanding. but the real surprise would be range bound down around here till options

Why is the real surprise nothing?
I expect nothing.
The real surprise is if if breaks either way. If it does I will fade the move either way. I lightened up 50% of my QQQ puts on the opening dip. I will sell the rest if we break 24 I will add back over 25. I have June puts so I am not concerned about time here.

There are 340K puts and 240K calls at strike 25.
That is nuts if you ask me.
Then look at calls stacking up above 25 and puts below.
Everone is convinced of a break here.
Why should one happen?

Spoos are harder to read.
My strategy there is Long a June 900 Put and short a March 835 put. A close at 840 or below and I have a profit on both. 825 or 830 probably maximizes my profit but not so sure. If we just keep on tanking below 800 I will have a gain but nowhere near what I would have without the hedge.
If we rally back to 840 I also might consider taking the short put off the table (it will be decayed by a lot) hoping for a pullback and adding it back at a better price.

That is how I am playing this mess and much of it says we stay rangebound or slightly down thru this expiry.

Finally if you are talking about an inverse H&S patter that measures to DOW 11,800 or whatever - that simply is not going to happen

M
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