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Hi, Michael. I agree that the current Ragweed trial and a new corporate partnership are
both very important to IMUL's near term future. Difficult to say which is
more important since *both* are necessary. Results from the current trial will form the primary data set which the FDA will review for safety and
efficacy. Statistically significant results vs. placebo will, of course, be necessary for FDA approval. Let's hope for no surprises here - IMUL has
much preclinical and clinical experience with Ragweed and knows how it performs. Strength of the results will certainly affect stock price due to
investor perceptions of potential market penetrance. A partnership agreement or two will have, I believe, broader signals for investors. It will
validate investor concerns of Allervax marketability (for Ragweed as well as the other therapeutics) which arose with the HMRI pullout. This could be
considered a step beyond "approvability" since the new corporate partner will be evaluating potential for commercial success. That is, any weakness in
safety or efficacy from previous studies will certainly be recognized by a potential corporate partner. Also, the strength of the new partnership (i.e.,
how much IMUL has to "give away") will be a signal for investors. IMUL has stated repeatedly that it expects a greater share of revenue from a partnership since development risk has been lessened by successful clinical
trials. Finally, investors expect a broader partnership than the one with HMRI which will likely include advanced formulations and diagnostics. In regards to timing of these milestones, I somewhat expect that a partnership
agreement will be announced prior to release of the Ragweed clinical results. However, this is not necessary for any particular reason since IMUL is in very good shape financially. I hope that any decision they make will be for the long term benefit of stockholders and *not* in response to investor cries for a quick partnership agreement. Cheers! Rudy |
