Stitch,
If the "witnesses" recant, and Anwar was obviously abused, I'd say it could get hot fairly quickly. There is an anger threshold, where people who were once willing to trade off democracy for stability decide that enough is enough. This sort of maneuver is exactly what pushes people over it.
If you see the middle class and the religious Muslims on the streets, it's finished. If he doesn't come down hard, people loose their fear, and all the old resentments come out. If he does, they get even angrier. His only way to shut it down is to start shooting people; that's a no-win reaction, and I think even MM is smart enough to see that. We may be seeing an early retirement.
How do the armed forces feel about it? If they were ordered to shoot at ordinary citizens, would they do it?
Starting to get reminded of our little street party in '86. I know how it feels, that mixture of real hope and real fear, and I hope - really hope - it doesn't get any uglier than it has to.
Good luck,
Steve |
