glenn,
I know how you feel and I have a loss on Araldica too. At this price, not very many are on the plus side. I hope that there really will by a party and the you and your buddies make money by staying in.
Though Araldica hype has cost some "followers" a lot of money in the past, I don't think that the stock is as susceptible to the Pump and Dump as it was before. I also don't know to what extent management was responsible for the past hype, but they may at least have looked at it as fortuitous when it seemed to let them bargain with pricey shares. It looked like it worked in their favor, but they quickly experienced the downside which is "loss of credibility" and a stock that languishes even with good news. From private messages and e-mails, I find that Araldica has recognized the need to do things right and to be credible. They acknowledge the need for a reputable national financial PR firm. That won't happen until they publish audited financial information, if then, but I'm sure they won't sponsor any more hype.
My phone calls give me a feel that the Danielle deal will be completed. They really do have 6MM+ in revenue. That really will mean 9MM+ forward revenue in place.
With the strict laws against interstate wine shipments, that "story" aspect of the company is limited in its immediate potential. The three tier distribution method that the company talks about is related to the most effective method of wine distribution throughout the US. It is expensive and time consuming to put into place, but can be accomplished. The potential for growth by that method is real. Marketing wine across state lines is also very restricted. Again the three tier method can be affective. Continued growth by acquisition is also likely through deals paid by a little up front, some over time out of the on-going operations, and company stock with trade restrictions. A lot of small business owners are looking for just such a deal.
Over time, the Internet is going to change the way people do business. Laws are already changing to accommodate the Internet. This too will take time, but excluding the Wine aspect, Araldica will be tying in their web site with their advertising of Mediterranean Diet products and gourmet foods, and if you watch any TV you must have noticed the Internet addresses on many ads. As for the $5MM prepaid advertising, if it stands the audit, I will be amazed. However, the "paid" amount will buy SOME ads and dilution for the benefit of additional ads will be considered when the time comes. Localized and focused ads can be accomplished for a lot less dollars.
I hope it doesn't sound like I'm trying to convince anyone to buy this stock, but I also don't want them to blow it off as a fraud and make knee jerk posts to the thread to combat the pump and dump bad guys. Aren't revenue and growth good signs that there is a real company. Aren't acquisitions that actually take place a good sign. I have expectations, I think "potential" can carry intrinsic value and I think we are capable of addressing the bad guys on the threads and protecting our investments.
I'm glad you finally found our thread and I hope you get your buddies to post in the conversation.
Good investing,
Slim
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