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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 268.79+4.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (68431)3/10/2003 7:35:43 PM
From: runes   of 70976
 
<<do you think Bush will accept any diplomatic solution in a manner that will decrease the uncertainty and cause a market rally?>>

Not easily. But - Bush's tone has shifted considerably from his early petulance to a more somber tone. And the revisions from no second resolution all the way down to concrete timeline also reflects the pressure they are feeling.
...And here I will make two points about positional bargaining - first: most of the movement occurs at the deadline. Second: once the lip starts to quiver, retrenchment is close at hand. Saddam has already flinched - on U2s, on unsupervised questioning, on the missiles, on documentation on Vx destruction. And now Bush and the British are also flinching.
...So the stage is set where a compromise is possible.

Beyond that, what is most needed is for one of the fence sitters to step up to the plate with the compromise resolution. The US/British contingent won't draft a neutral resolution nor will the French et. al contingent. The best would be for Guinea to put forth a resolution to whit - Iraq will immediately and unconditionally agree to 1) document all Samood IIs and set a firm schedule for destruction 2) document the UAV program and submit it for UN approval 3) Complete documentation of their destruction of the VX, anthrax, etc. Said items to be done by April 1st. Further Iraq will agree to xy and z items to be completed within 6 months.
...This will put Iraq on the spot to comply with specifics or be attacked. And it would save face for Bush (see now we are getting real compliance) and the French (see we have stopped the US from attacking on the basis of vague "intelligence" reports). And it leaves the door open for a future attack at the next window of opportunity should Saddam renig on the agreement.

The only downside is that Bush may have face the possibility of Saddam remaining in power.

Of course it is easy for me to call this compromise but, so far, no one done more than suggest it. And that is a problem when the big guys fight - the little guys tend to duck and cover. So it probably won't happen - but it could.
...And if it does happen then the markets will react quite positively. Because it would either mean a UN approved war quickly or a 6 month window of grace. And a big sigh of relief across the globe.

Come on Guinea - teach those big egos what diplomacy is all about!
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