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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)?
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To: John Wight who wrote (6845)9/2/1996 11:42:00 PM
From: Patrick Keeler   of 58324
 
Jaz tie ratio is unknown.

The owner of Promax once posted on AOL that he shipped 35,000 Jaz disks and 7,000 Jaz drives. This was early on (April) in the Jaz product lifecycle. I think this is a good conservative tie ratio (5:1).

A survey by a long time bull who owns a Mac consulting business shows that his customers owned 63 Jaz drives and had bought around 700 disks. This would put the Jaz tie ratio at 11:1. This is supported by rumored comments from a JP Morgan analyst who told investors that Jaz tie rates exceed Zip tie rates.

I use the 5:1 ratio for Jaz. Anything more would provide a nice upside surprise going forward.

One thing about the analyst estimates: they use very low tie ratios for Zip. JP Morgan (I believe) uses a 3:1 Zip disk to drive ratio when they computed 1997 estimates ($0.82/share). In the end you have to ask "will Iomega beat $0.82/share for 1997?" Knowing that at least the tie ratio aspect is very conservative you have to believe that Iomega has every possibility of beating long range estimates. Anything can happen in 3Q, but looking long term the stock is very undervalued at $15.5.

The stock, and markets, should come back and form some type of double bottom. Next time IOMG approaches $13 I will be ready. :)
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