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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Bull Market.

RMBS 95.57

+0.7%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: bearshark who wrote (681)	6/14/2002 1:59:12 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) of 1750

bearshark, Can't disagree with you on anything you said. I just hope they get it right....? >> My analysis of NYSE data show we are reaching the pits of pessimism. It includes various ways of looking at the ARMs index components. << Your the volume Guru and understand it better then most anyone I've chatted with...! I've been messing about with the ARMs in Excel looking at MA's and some over sold over bought conditions, but my data doesn't go back very far. Trin is one of the best along with the MACD. Arm's book "Trading Without Fear" is a fascinating work mixing the ARMs Index with volume. >>P/Es of 70 to 100 for selected large perceived "growth" companies that have real profits. The secondary averages will underperform.<< Another aspect could be the return of dividends as a way to assuage the past misuse of options and corporate greed. P/E's.... 'don't make no sense' to me because they don't take into account the change in volume from the 70s to 2002. There's just a lot more people... with a lot more money... chasing a very few companies... with enormous margin and with electronic efficiency. These facts alter the use of P/E's to judge a markets or stocks value or the relative position of an Index...! Without taking volume and the new volatility into consideration one doesn't get a handle on what's going on with the Index's. >>By the way, keep your eyes on large techs as the market makes theses little recovery moves during these days. If the last week's activity continues, you will see them recover first. << This also makes a great deal of sense, and must come from your old broker instincts. Buy what they've dropped on the floor. Any company like Cisco that's got a future will move if the whole sheebang doesn't blow up.

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