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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: bruwin who wrote (68900)10/18/2021 12:14:10 PM
From: Lance Bredvold3 Recommendations

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In private posts with bruwin, I detailed an intimate (if incomplete) knowledge of the development of the world's largest iron ore mine, railroad and port which originated those 400,000 ton shipments. The mine which is a mountain of high grade iron ore, forms the horizon for Brazil's third largest city, Belo Horizonte' (beautiful horizon). Since I've known about this mine and iron ore mining in general since childhood, I've paid attention whenever the topic comes up.

One thing is perhaps worth considering as a threat. When the mine was developed around 1965-1980 the tailings ponds required to wash new ore of it's impurities were constructed in river drainage basins. Apparently later development by Vale (a company I do not know) simply built additional height on the original dams as sediment filled the basins. Meanwhile, towns of people grew up below the dams (when I was there in 1973 the area around the mines was mostly jungle). And a couple of those collapsed killing numerous residents a few years ago. I suspect a lot of money is being spent building new and better engineered tailings ponds now. Yet, Brazil is relatively (to the US) unconcerned with loss of human life (IMO).

I was back to the port (near Sepitiba not far south of Rio de Janeiro) in 1980 and saw the loading facility with those huge ore carriers piled up due to track slippage after heavy rains. That is fairly common with new trackage like was extant for the 300 KM or so of dual tracks from Belo down to Sepitiba.

I was a little surprised by the story Bruwin told because it would seem to me that labor and construction costs in Brasil would be low enough to do the processing to pellets before going onto the ships in the first place. Interesting.

I've said for many years (wrote a theme on Brazil in high school (1960)presciently?))) titled something like "Brazil, land of promise (and always will be). That was long before I even knew I'd have some more intimate knowledge of the country, but in many ways I think the nail was hit squarely.

Take what you want and leave the rest.
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