PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End?

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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (687)	6/2/2005 3:11:55 PM
From: kryptonic6	Read Replies (1) of 1183

I find people on this board basing their judgement on their politics not their economic intelligence. Sit back and watch. Commodities are priced on the margin. A small decrease in demand will cause a larger decrease in price. The problem is that neoclassical economic theory falls apart when it comes to energy. Energy is not just another commodity, is it the prerequisite for all other commodities: ENERGY LAWS: PERPETUAL MOTION IS IMPOSSIBLE Although economists treat energy just like any other resource, it is not like any other resource. Available energy is the prerequisite for all other resources. Moreover, universal energy laws tell us that the economist's perpetual-motion machine is impossible. To lift 15 kg of oil 5 meters out of the ground requires 735 joules of energy just to overcome gravity -- and the higher the lift, the greater the energy requirements. The most concentrated and most accessible oil is produced first; thereafter, more and more energy is required to find and produce oil. At some point, more energy is spent finding and producing oil than the energy recovered. Thus, Adelman is wrong: it is not all a matter of money. Empirical studies on Louisiana oil fields suggest that oil wells and fields are "energy losers" before they become "money losers" and are closed down. dieoff.com ..... NEARLY EVERYONE IS WRONG! Nearly everyone in the world (all governments, and all but a handful of scientists, etc.) has accepted the economists' perpetual-motion machine. Even the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the USA Department of Energy has no idea how much energy is required to produce energy ("net energy"). Nor does the EIA have any idea how long energy can be produced ("peak")! But even a child can understand that machines do not run on money -- they run on energy ("Daddy's car needs gas!") -- and available energy is a prerequisite for producing more energy. Once the truth is told, no one will ever believe that the energy experts in the Clinton Administration were just too stupid to see it coming; too stupid understand these simple energy principles that can be taught to a child... -Jay Hanson, dieoff.org things are never as good or bad as they appear when the crowd hysteria is in vogue. My guess is that 80-90% of Americans still have probably not heard of Peak Oil, and many that have don't grasp the scope of the problem. It has gained much more attention over the last year, but I disagree that it has reached popular acceptance. Even the major newspapers that have printed articles outlining the theory usually completely ignore the theory in their every day oil/energy articles -- I.E. "Crude surges past $55/barrel" type headlines which don't say a word about the impending global production peak and permanent decline. And then there are the propaganda networks that tell us more about Michael Jackson than about the converging crises facing our country. Jesse

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