bb, oh Propeller Beanie,
Clearly, you got to know by now that I consider you one of the best chart readers on SI. Welcome to this sandbox! The folks here are busy dudes and we don't talk much, but we like to believe that there are few more serious about the issue.
Gersh is going bonkers; MG is one of the best at candles; TM has got a YTD return that few could match; DJ exposes us to the Euro issue; and, if we could get him back, nobody is better at LEAPS than JT (come back).
Let me side step IBM as MG has already noted the problem you raise. I only can add that I've been following this creature for a long time and a 50% retracement in this bull market has been significant. There are a couple of winners in the nutz world over the long term, the puppies are going to come and go, but IBM will be left standing.
I'll agree with you that any stock trading above its monthly trend is suspect. The Peter Principle states that this problem, as all economic problems, will resolve itself. While down is definitely a long way, the Big Boyz seem to resolve this problem by going into hibernation; they move sideways for an extended period of time. If the support at $108-111 breaks, I'll consider your thesis to be real.
While you are here, I'd like you to connect the dots on the lows of 6/1. 6/11, 6/24, 8/10 and 9/16 on INDU. That is a lot of tests, and presents an ultimate Pivot Point concept. Considering only INDU, what do you go long if it goes to the upside, and what do you go short if this test fails? Of course, there is always DIA.
I am a different creature and only consider this as a Bull market since 1994. I also love trend lines that look coherent. The lower trend line for SPX seems to form very well at 12/94 (again, on the monthly chart). If one considers the thesis valid, the LTL is about 1100.
The really neat part about this TL is that it moves upwards very nicely. I have a difficult time projecting extent, but it seems to me that it is about 1470. Further, if one moves it down to the top of 8/94, it seems to reflect that magical number of 1297.
It just looks to me like a great Big unresolved pennant in both INDU and SPX. Nonetheless, both are close to a break out and the breakout line will be pivotal in the next few months.
However, as MG has pointed out, getting the direction right is only half the battle; one has to bet on the right horse. I'm convinced that the direction of the move is going to be decided in the next few days!
Just a View from the Swamp
TB |
