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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: Rocky9 who wrote (6937)6/4/2003 8:39:46 AM
From: Rocky9  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
Corrected numbers (I used the wrong estimates - but remember that SEPR said that it would be profitable in '02-'03 back in '98, so I think that the estimates might be optimistic):

Current cash after redemption: $422M ($534M on 03/03 - $112M)

Current year cash loss: $140M (estimates for year are additional loss of $1.80/sh - but number may be way too high if R&D stays low)

'04 cash loss: $50M based on estimates of $.86/sh loss

Cash at end of '04: $232M

Cash needed: $430M on 11/15/06
plus $440M on 02/15/07

Based on these optimistic numbers, SEPR will have 25 1/2 months to produce ~$650M, which seems almost impossible to ramp. As I have said, it doesn't mean that the existing debt won't be converted or refinanced. If the '06 bond is converted at 60/sh, it will be no problem to pay off the 02/07 bond when due.

Sorry for the confusion. Me bad.
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