Sorry JGoren, that was sarcasm about people selling Qualcomm when results are so good. It beats me why they sell just before or on the announcement of more great results, but they go on doing it. So Ramsey and I [and others] wait for the inevitable steep drop every 6 months or so then load up the U-haul with more cheap shares. There are heaps of shares being sold at $47 to $53. All you can eat!
Then the panic goes away, the price rises 50% and hey presto it has reached new all time highs. Qualcomm results for 10 years have increased yearly. All is looking rosey. Korea's financial problems, including Samsung's, won't affect Qualcomm's sales, technical development or profit. It might even help as it means a competitor in the wider band CDMA game might give up: Samsung, Siemens and Interdigital were trying to get B-CDMA to work for mobile multimedia.
NextWave was depending on Samsung funding I guess, but NextWave hasn't figured in Qualcomm profit forecasts for a while.
Ramsey is sitting on cash. Heaps of it. Hoping for a deflationary, all out, globalized prang so he can step up with drool on his chin, rose-colored wallet in hand, helping himself to margin-bought distress sales as prices tumble uncontrollably.
I've been agonizing over this for a few years now. I reckon that the Fed, Japan, Korea and other central banks can print faster than prices can drop. So I have placed exactly the opposite bet to Ramsey. I have moderate debt, not cash. I expect the problem won't be too bad and with some good old fashioned money destruction via the printing machines, share prices will start rising again.
There is heaps of scope for printing. Gold is down to $281. Oil is way down with plenty of scope for more falls. Gold is hardly an economic input, just an indicator of worry, but oil is a biggie. Free oil = a huge economic boost. Bad luck for the Arabs who will have to cancel their luxury spending. Purchases will divert from luxuries for the middle east and other oil owners to oil consumers.
Oil has dropped by 30% and nobody seems to have noticed. That is big time. When you don't spend it on oil, you can spend it on cellphones.
So, to finish another long-winned post, I'm suggesting to Ramsey that his holiday has worked its magic on the stock price, he can buy up large at a price which has to increase 50% to get back to its previous high. Not a bad trick for a new year. Plenty of people [maybe including Ramsey] are too worried to buy and are sticking with cash to ride out the coming disaster. And thereby being diluted by the Fed, say I, although so far, Ramsey is right.
Don't get antsy Mike D. We can philosophize now and Ramsey can be the audience again, his natural role. Jeering and booing. With the true perspective of a rose-colored wallet to peer through.
You even jumped on stage yourself Ramsey for some philosophical oration and politics!! But got booed off. Welcome back to 1998.
Okay, enough.
Gone.
Maurice.
[Ramsey, Qdog got savaged by a Libertarian-in-denial or two, but he got a few chunks of calf for dinner. After some fury, fur and fluster he slunk off to his kennel. I'm keeping an eye out as he probably wants a chunk of me too.] |
