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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market
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To: studdog who wrote (6950)11/4/1997 12:25:00 PM
From: Defrocked   of 18056
 
RE:"This can be corrected by: 1)bond yields going down further (at 5.5% fair value is 909) 2) estimates for earnings being raised, and 3) prices come down."

Thanks, Karl. The above synopsis does describe the emerging quandary
for equities. The Far East asset valuation declines may impact next
year's earnings negatively, thus earnings growth will have a difficult time maintaining the market's high expectations. The Fed will not(?should not?) lower interest rates at this time thus an interest rate decline must result from slower growth, again implying declining earnings. If interest rates come down due to slower growth the deficit expands removing another bullish underpinning. Too many circumstances are pointing to profit taking and risk reduction for equities through the sale of equities. BWDIK.

Because of the foregoing I still hold Jan OEX puts on my portfolio
despite recent upward pressure. I want to hear AMAT's outlook on
Nov.20th for further clarification of Tech. growth. I may end up
holding these puts until worthless. But as I have said before, I
prefer to puke all over myself during the last three holes of
a good game of golf rather than on my keyboard and Bloomberg.

That's my strategy and I'm sticking to it. And you can add that
to my tombstone.<g>
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