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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Ilaine who wrote (69901)	2/21/2001 4:18:20 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) of 436258

CB -- Roger is a smart man. He has many years experience in the industry. I've talked with him and some folks in his outfit. Where I part company with him is that demand will continue to grow at its recent rapid clip -- I think he is extrapolating some of his local experiences and what he has seen in California. He doesn't say anything about demand -- but that is an assumption implicit in his reasoning ... Energy prices on the whole, I believe will move higher, but not what I would call a crisis. More gas-fired gen does compete with other uses of nat gas in the winter, but still it is a smaller percentage (~15 - 18% I think) of overall usage. Furthermore, I don't think technologies can be picked that are going to be winners -- improvements in the biz and tech are largely incremental. Don't invest in Capstone or one of the fuel cell makers -- you'll only lose your money ... There may be money to be made in some of the end use areas, but only after we have run deep into the recession we have just started. One area I find intriguing: Many "in the know" are predicting the demise of the incandescent bulb -- replaced by LEDs. Neat article in Sci Am about this. The other day I was passing by where I went to college and some place was already advertising LED lights -- I think only early adopters will buy now and I'm sure there are problems with cost, etc, but I believe they will be licked. Imagine having lighting that doesn't have to be replaced for the rest of your life or at a minimum maybe 10 years or so ...

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