Was given info that westergaard.com:8080/list.html had some analyst's reports. here is what I found on one of them for anyone who may be interested:
THE IDEA
ACTV has a patented technology designed to individualize TV programming and advertising. The concept of individualized programming is a big idea designed to alter how people watch TV -- taking it from the cool (passive) medium of Marshall "Medium Is The Message" McLuhan to a "hot" medium with the viewer assuming programming control.
ACTV allows the individual viewer to make instant and seamless changes of on-screen video, graphics and audio - with thousands of versions available depending on the responses entered. There is no limit to the number of viewers who can interact simultaneously. The ACTV platform works with single and multiple channels of bandwith applied to cable, direct broadcast satellite (DBS), wireless, wire and conventional over-the-air broadcast. It is analog and digital compatible and operates in one-way and eventually two-way configurations.
The programming technology may either: (a) enhance existing programs produced in standard linear format, (b) incorporate "piggy-back" branch alternatives into the shooting of ongoing shows, or (c) be applied to original interactive programming for new shows.
In May 1995 the company opened the first of 20 regional networks with the presentation of a Lakers/Supersonics NBA playoff game. Viewers could choose camera angles, view individual star players in close-up, call up statistics, and activate instant replay. This programming technology is applicable in three areas:
Regional Networks - Sports programming will primarily drive this ACTV premium entertainment channel which is undergoing a 1,000 home trial in Ventura County. It offers individualized programming for Lakers, Kings, Angels and other sporting events, individualized versions of six CNN programs, game shows from Sony's Game Show Network, and educational programs. Viewers may request details of a TV commercial (example: ask to see a specific model while watching a Buick ad). We assume Atlanta and San Francisco will be the next two markets given ACTV's strong ties to Turner and Liberty.
Education - ACTV distance learning enables teachers to be brought into any classroom and to interact with students. ACTV systems are in 250+ schools and are being integrated statewide in Georgia with Georgia State University and Georgia Public TV. Various other corporate alliances and programming developments are underway with broadcasters and content providers such as Turner Educational Services and manufacturers such as General Instrument. Site Based Entertainment - ACTV has licensed its technology to the Greenwich Group for a 10% royalty on gross receipts with a minimum $250,000. Greenwich operates interactive theaters in shopping malls showing a 28 minute movie for children controlled individually by the viewer via a special arm rest and headset. The first installation is in Minneapolis at The Mall of America.
THE LATEST
Oct95: Co raised $11.5mm via sale of common in a shelf registration. Seems unlikely that investors such as Fidelity would have participated without seeing encouraging Ventura test results. Extinguishment of $2.5mm debt leaves Co debt free.
Dec95: Co joined with Sony's 24 hour Game Show Network (GSN) to develop individualized versions of game shows from the world's most extensive game show library.
THE NUMBERS
Westergaard's ACTV scenario calls for the Network to roll out its Ventura test commercially by mid-1996 to the 4.8mm home L.A. cable market. It assumes a 10% market share by Dec97 generating $50-60mm in 1998 revs at $10/mo/per home. Note that a 26% share was gained and sustained in Montreal beginning '91 with far less to offer and 22% in Edmonton.
Assume further that five regional networks roll out annually in years 1997 thru 2000. It then becomes not outside the realm of reason that ACTV's Network and joint venturees and cable systems could be generating premium cable revs of $1bn+. Add whatever else might come from educational and on-site and other activities as yet unborn and one could be looking at a large international communications company by 2000.
THE VIEWPOINT
As the ACTV Network rolls out commercially in L.A., the stock will begin discounting a national rollout to 20 markets in line with the Westergaard scenario outlined above. If we assume only $500mm gross Network revs by 2000 and 10% after tax to ACTV (management expects higher), we're looking at EPS in the range of $5+. An anticipatory revaluation of the stock to a market cap of $300-500mm (25-40) is to be expected in 1996-97 in our opinion.
Credibility will be enhanced as investors awaken to the wide spectrum of relationships assembled by CEO Bill Samuels: The Washington Post (owns 20%), Turner/CNN, Liberty Sports, Rupert Murdoch, David Sarnoff Research Center, Sony, etc etc. That's a lot of muscle with a vested interest in the success of this little company.
Bottom line - If the Ventura test converts to a full rollout in L.A. in 1996, ACTV could be one of the bigger market stories of the next 18mos with a target of 25 to 40.
FOR INFO
ACTV, Inc., 1270 Ave of Americas, NY 10020, contact Bob Becker (212-262-2570). IR Wall Street Group (212-888-4848). Other Research: Michael Shonstrom at Neidiger Tucker (303-825-1825). |
