REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES
Strategy, Forces and Resources
For a New Century
A Report of
The Project for the New American Century
September 2000
newamericancentury.org
DONALD KAGAN GARY SCHMITT
Project Co-Chairmen
THOMAS DONNELLY
Principal Author
The Project for the New American
Century was established in the spring of
1997. From its inception, the Project has
been concerned with the decline in the
strength of America’s defenses, and in the
problems this would create for the exercise
of American leadership around the globe
and, ultimately, for the preservation of
peace.
Our concerns were reinforced by the
two congressionally-mandated defense
studies that appeared soon thereafter: the
Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review
(May 1997) and the report of the National
Defense Panel (December 1997). Both
studies assumed that U.S. defense budgets
would remain flat or continue to shrink. As
a result, the defense plans and
recommendations outlined in the two reports
were fashioned with such budget constraints
in mind. Broadly speaking, the QDR
stressed current military requirements at the
expense of future defense needs, while the
NDP’s report emphasized future needs by
underestimating today’s defense
responsibilities.
Although the QDR and the report of the
NDP proposed different policies, they
shared one underlying feature: the gap
between resources and strategy should be
resolved not by increasing resources but by
shortchanging strategy. America’s armed
forces, it seemed, could either prepare for
the future by retreating from its role as the
essential defender of today’s global security
order, or it could take care of current
business but be unprepared for tomorrow’s
threats and tomorrow’s battlefields.
Either alternative seemed to us
shortsighted. The United States is the
world’s only superpower, combining
preeminent military power, global
technological leadership, and the world’s
largest economy. Moreover, America stands
at the head of a system of alliances which
includes the world’s other leading
democratic powers. At present the United
States faces no global rival. America’s
grand strategy should aim to preserve and
extend this advantageous position as far into
the future as possible. There are, however,
potentially powerful states dissatisfied with
the current situation and eager to change it,
if they can, in directions that endanger the
relatively peaceful, prosperous and free
condition the world enjoys today. Up to
now, they have been deterred from doing so
by the capability and global presence of
American military power. But, as that
power declines, relatively and absolutely,
the happy conditions that follow from it will
be inevitably undermined.
Preserving the desirable strategic
situation in which the United States now
finds itself requires a globally preeminent
military capability both today and in the
future. But years of cuts in defense
spending have eroded the American
military’s combat readiness, and put in
jeopardy the Pentagon’s plans for
maintaining military superiority in the years
ahead. Increasingly, the U.S. military has
found itself undermanned, inadequately
equipped and trained, straining to handle
contingency operations, and ill-prepared to
adapt itself to the revolution in military
affairs. Without a well-conceived defense
policy and an appropriate increase in
At present the
United States
faces no
global rival.
America’s
grand strategy
should aim to
preserve and
extend this
advantageous
position as far
into the future
as possible.
defense spending, the United States has been
letting its ability to take full advantage of the
remarkable strategic opportunity at hand slip
away.
With this in mind, we began a project in
the spring of 1998 to examine the country’s
defense plans and resource requirements.
We started from the premise that U.S.
military capabilities should be sufficient to
support an American grand strategy
committed to building upon this
unprecedented opportunity. We did not
accept pre-ordained constraints that
followed from assumptions about what the
country might or might not be willing to
expend on its defenses.
In broad terms, we saw the project as
building upon the defense strategy outlined
by the Cheney Defense Department in the
waning days of the Bush Administration.
The Defense Policy Guidance (DPG) drafted
in the early months
of 1992 provided a
blueprint for
maintaining U.S.
preeminence,
precluding the rise
of a great power
rival, and shaping
the international
security order in
line with American
principles and
interests. Leaked
before it had been
formally approved,
the document was
criticized as an
effort by “cold
warriors” to keep defense spending high and
cuts in forces small despite the collapse of
the Soviet Union; not surprisingly, it was
subsequently buried by the new
administration.
Although the experience of the past
eight years has modified our understanding
of particular military requirements for
carrying out such a strategy, the basic tenetsof the DPG, in our judgment, remain sound.
And what Secretary Cheney said at the time
in response to the DPG’s critics remains true
today: “We can either sustain the [armed]
forces we require and remain in a position to
help shape things for the better, or we can
throw that advantage away. [But] that
would only hasten the day when we face
greater threats, at higher costs and further
risk to American lives.”
The project proceeded by holding a
series of seminars. We asked outstanding
defense specialists to write papers to explore
a variety of topics: the future missions and
requirements of the individual military
services, the role of the reserves, nuclear
strategic doctrine and missile defenses, the
defense budget and prospects for military
modernization, the state (training and
readiness) of today’s forces, the revolution
in military affairs, and defense-planning for
theater wars, small wars and constabulary
operations. The papers were circulated to a
group of participants, chosen for their
experience and judgment in defense affairs.
(The list of participants may be found at the
end of this report.) Each paper then became
the basis for discussion and debate. Our
goal was to use the papers to assist
deliberation, to generate and test ideas, and
to assist us in developing our final report.
While each paper took as its starting point a
shared strategic point of view, we made no
attempt to dictate the views or direction of
the individual papers. We wanted as full
and as diverse a discussion as possible.
Our report borrows heavily from those
deliberations. But we did not ask seminar
participants to “sign-off” on the final report.
We wanted frank discussions and we sought
to avoid the pitfalls of trying to produce a
consensual but bland product. We wanted to
try to define and describe a defense strategy
that is honest, thoughtful, bold, internally
consistent and clear. And we wanted to
spark a serious and informed discussion, the
essential first step for reaching sound
conclusions and for gaining public support.
New circumstances make us think that
the report might have a more receptive
audience now than in recent years. For the
first time since the late 1960s the federal
government is running a surplus. For most
of the 1990s, Congress and the White House
gave balancing the federal budget a higher
priority than funding national security. In
fact, to a significant degree, the budget was
balanced by a combination of increased tax
revenues and cuts in defense spending. The
surplus expected in federal revenues over
the next decade, however, removes any need
to hold defense spending to some
preconceived low level.
Moreover, the American public and its
elected representatives have become
increasingly aware of the declining state of
the U.S. military. News stories, Pentagon
reports, congressional testimony and
anecdotal accounts from members of the
armed services paint a disturbing picture of
an American military that is troubled by
poor enlistment and retention rates, shoddy
housing, a shortage of spare parts and
weapons, and diminishing combat readiness.
Finally, this report comes after a
decade’s worth of experience in dealing with
the post-Cold War world. Previous efforts
to fashion a defense strategy that would
make sense for today’s security environment
were forced to work from many untested
assumptions about the nature of a world
without a superpower rival. We have a
much better idea today of what our
responsibilities are, what the threats to us
might be in this new security environment,
and what it will take to secure the relative
peace and stability. We believe our report
reflects and benefits from that decade’s
worth of experience.
Our report is published in a presidential
election year. The new administration will
need to produce a second Quadrennial
Defense Review shortly after it takes office.
We hope that the Project’s report will be
useful as a road map for the nation’s
immediate and future defense plans. We
believe we have set forth a defense program
that is justified by the evidence, rests on an
honest examination of the problems and
possibilities, and does not flinch from facing
the true cost of security. We hope it will
inspire careful consideration and serious
discussion. The post-Cold War world will
not remain a relatively peaceful place if we
continue to neglect foreign and defense
matters. But serious attention, careful
thought, and the willingness to devote
adequate resources to maintaining
America’s military strength can make the
world safer and American strategic interests
more secure now and in the future.
KEY FINDINGS
ESTABLISH FOUR CORE MISSIONS for U.S. military forces:
• defend the American homeland;
• fight and decisively win multiple, simultaneous major theater wars;
• perform the “constabulary” duties associated with shaping the security environment in
critical regions;
• transform U.S. forces to exploit the “revolution in military affairs;”
To carry out these core missions, we need to provide sufficient force and budgetary allocations. In particular, the United States must:
MAINTAIN NUCLEAR STRATEGIC SUPERIORITY, basing the U.S. nuclear deterrent upon a global, nuclear net assessment that weighs the full range of current and emerging threats,
not merely the U.S.-Russia balance.
RESTORE THE PERSONNEL STRENGTH of today’s force to roughly the levels anticipated in the “Base Force” outlined by the Bush Administration, an increase in active-duty strength
from 1.4 million to 1.6 million.
REPOSITION U.S. FORCES to respond to 21st century strategic realities by shifting permanently-based forces to Southeast Europe and Southeast Asia, and by changing naval deployment patterns to reflect growing U.S. strategic concerns in East Asia.
MODERNIZE CURRENT U.S. FORCES SELECTIVELY, proceeding with the F-22 program while
increasing purchases of lift, electronic support and other aircraft; expanding submarine
and surface combatant fleets; purchasing Comanche helicopters and medium-weight
ground vehicles for the Army, and the V-22 Osprey “tilt-rotor” aircraft for the Marine
Corps.
CANCEL “ROADBLOCK” PROGRAMS such as the Joint Strike Fighter, CVX aircraft carrier,
and Crusader howitzer system that would absorb exorbitant amounts of Pentagon funding
while providing limited improvements to current capabilities. Savings from these canceled
programs should be used to spur the process of military transformation.
DEVELOP AND DEPLOY GLOBAL MISSILE DEFENSES to defend the American homeland and
American allies, and to provide a secure basis for U.S. power projection around the world.
CONTROL THE NEW “INTERNATIONAL COMMONS” OF SPACE AND “CYBERSPACE,” and pave
the way for the creation of a new military service – U.S. Space Forces – with the mission of
space control.
EXPLOIT THE “REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS” to insure the long-term superiority of
U.S. conventional forces. Establish a two-stage transformation process which
• maximizes the value of current weapons systems through the application of advanced
technologies, and,
• produces more profound improvements in military capabilities, encourages competition
between single services and joint-service experimentation efforts.
INCREASE DEFENSE SPENDING gradually to a minimum level of 3.5 to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product, adding $15 billion to $20 billion to total defense spending annually. |
