"California Dreaming" by Mark Shields.CNN
California politics and the nightmare scenario
SACRAMENTO, California -- You're Karl Rove, and the recent political news from California -- the absolutely must-win state for any Democrat to win the White House -- has been nothing but good for you and your boss, the president of the United States.
With total Democratic control in Sacramento, the state faces a budget deficit in excess of $35 billion that will require politically painful budget cuts and tax increases to resolve.
Three out of four voters say they have an unfavorable personal opinion of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis (who is the target of an organized effort by conservatives to recall him from office), and just 24 percent of voters approve of the job Davis is doing, which is the poorest job rating for any governor in the 55 year history of the Field Poll.
That same survey shows George W. Bush currently leading the 2004 Democratic nominee 45 percent to 40 percent in California, which in 2000 he lost to Al Gore in a mini-landslide and which "Today (for president)," concedes state Senate president and liberal icon John Burton, "is in play. "
Gray Davis never really recovered with his constituents from the state's 2001 energy crisis, with its big rate hikes and rolling blackouts. The public blamed everybody involved, including the energy companies, whose gouging practices have since been documented.
But in the judgment of the Field Poll's Mark DiCamillo, that crisis "was fatal for Davis, who had won in 1998 by arguing, "I may not be flashy or especially likeable, but I'll be a prudent steward and a good manager." The current consensus is that he turned out to be neither.
Democratic manager Bill Carrick can find no escape route from Davis' budget crisis: "Every option he has now is bad. Whatever you propose to do, voters do not like." Carrick, strategist for Democratic presidential contender Rep. Richard Gephardt, sees many awkward moments for the party's 2004 White House candidates in dealing with an unpopular Gov. Davis: "Do you invite him to appear on the platform with your candidate? Do you use him to raise money? Does the nominee risk appointing, or rejecting, the governor to be the campaign's state chairman?"
But if Rep. Darrel Issa, R-California, has his way, there will be no Gov. Davis in Sacramento in 2004, and that could complicate all of Karl Rove's well-laid plans for George Bush to carry California..
Issa, who made millions in the car alarm business, announced this week that he will dedicate time, energy and financial support to getting the recall of Gray Davis on the ballot. State law requires the signatures of 900,000 voters to put the question to a public vote.
Those familiar with the process agree that to qualify and to avoid errors, at least 1.2 million signatures must be collected at a cost of $2.5 million. While public polls show a majority of voters oppose the recall vote, the electorate splits right down the middle on whether, if faced with the choice, it would sack or keep Davis.
Under California's quirky laws, if the recall of the governor qualifies for the ballot, then voters would face two questions: Should Gray Davis be recalled and, if a majority answers in the affirmative, then who should succeed him? All candidates -- Democrat, Republican and vegetarian -- are listed on the same ballot, and whoever finishes first -- even with 15 percent of the vote -- becomes governor until January 2003.
Issa is upfront about his own intention to run for governor in any recall election. Bill Simon, who lost to Davis last November, could run, quite possibly along with actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, already considering a 2006 run.
Among Democrats, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, with high name recognition but limited campaign funds, could see this as his best shot to be governor. That would force the hands of Democratic gubernatorial front-runners for 2006, State Treasurer Phil Angelides and Attorney General Bill Lockyer. It could be a melee.
Rove and Bush and the GOP would then no longer have Gray Davis to run against and to put Democrats uncomfortably on the defensive. Ironically, a Republican congressman's successful recall campaign against a Democratic governor could cost the GOP president his best chance of carrying California, and instead put the state's 54 electoral votes -- one-fifth of the number needed to win the White House -- again in the Democrats' column.
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