Potential N.C.A.A. BracketBusters. You’ve Been Warned.
Credit Illustration by Sam Manchester/The New York Times; Photographs by Getty Images
The key to winning your N.C.A.A. tournament pool is identifying and picking some teams to knock off higher-seeded opponents. (Except last year, when things pretty much unfolded predictably.) This college basketball season has been volatile at the top, so here are a few teams that might be worth considering as you fill out your brackets.
View our bracket here
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Yale guard Nick Victor (21) celebrated with his teammates after beating Columbia in the Ivy League. Credit Bryan R. Smith/Associated Press
No. 12 vs. No. 5
Yale Can Beat Baylor
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN Yale ended the season on a 17-1 run, cruising through the increasingly competitive Ivy League with a 13-1 record. Its veteran team had to deal with the pressure of becoming the first Bulldogs squad to qualify for the N.C.A.A. men’s tournament since 1962 and the scrutiny of the midseason departure of its captain, Jack Montague, in what was later revealed to be an expulsion in connection with a sexual misconduct accusation. In the senior big man Justin Sears, Yale has a go-to scorer. Baylor, meanwhile, beat only five teams bound for the N.C.A.A. tournament.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT While the Ivy League is increasingly competitive, it isn’t the Big 12, in which Baylor had a winning record.
X FACTOR The Yale sophomore Makai Mason has grown into his role as starting point guard, and he had 22 points — and just two turnovers — in Yale’s bid-clinching victory over Columbia earlier this month. Will he be ready for the biggest spotlight of his career?
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Northern Iowa’s Wes Washpun made the game-winning basket at the buzzer to beat Evansville during the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. Credit Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
No. 11 vs. No. 6
Northern Iowa Can Beat Texas
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN This is not the first rodeo for Northern Iowa, which was 1-1 in last year’s N.C.A.A. tournament and knocked off No. 1 North Carolina early this season. (It has been erratic since, enduring a 5-10 stretch in the middle of the season, then finishing with a 12-1 stretch.) As was the case with his Virginia Commonwealth teams, Texas Coach Shaka Smart’s manic defenses either work or don’t work. Most recently, against Baylor in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, they didn’t.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT Shaka Smart upsets you. You don’t upset Shaka Smart.
X FACTOR It goes without saying that underdogs need to have their shots go in, but in the Panthers’ case, it is absolutely vital: They are dead last in Division I in offensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom.com. Texas will deny them enough on first chances, and there may not be many second chances.
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Stefan Jankovic (33) led Hawaii to the Big West Conference tournament title. Credit Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press
No. 13 vs. No. 4
Hawaii Can Beat California
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN California’s interior defense is stellar; its opponents score the lowest percentage of their points via 2-point field goals, per KenPom.com. But Hawaii is great at scoring down low, led by the 6-foot-11 junior Stefan Jankovic, who is particularly good at being fouled and a threat to shoot 3-pointers. In that matchup, why shouldn’t the tie go to the offense, and to the more experienced team?
WHY IT MIGHT NOT In terms of raw talent, California was, if anything, underseeded at No. 4. It has beaten some terrific teams — St. Mary’s, Oregon State, Arizona, Utah, Oregon — and N.B.A. teams are eager to get their hands on talents like Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb.
X FACTOR Cal is one of the worst teams at turning over the ball, which can be a gift to Hawaii if the Rainbow Warriors can exploit it.
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Arkansas Little Rock forward Roger Woods celebrated with teammates after winning the Sun Belt Conference tournament. Credit Max Becherer/Associated Press
No. 12 vs. No. 5
?Arkansas-Little Rock Can Beat Purdue
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN The Trojans have proven they can play well above their Sun Belt Conference status. Little Rock beat Tulsa, San Diego State and DePaul on the road this season, and its formula was simple: ball possession. The Trojans were 13th nationally in turnover margin (3.5), while Purdue can be sloppy with the ball (-2.5 turnover margin). Little Rock also held teams to under 40 percent shooting from the field 19 times.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT Purdue can control the tempo against Little Rock, which does not play fast, and it should be able to dominate the boards, creating second-chance opportunities.
X FACTOR Denver’s thin air, which neither team will be used to. Purdue will travel to Colorado on Tuesday to prepare.
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Trey Pinkney (10) and his Stephen F. Austin teammates were dancing after winning the Southland Conference tournament. Credit David J. Phillip/Associated Press
No. 13 vs. No. 4
Stephen F. Austin Can Beat West Virginia
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN Stephen F. Austin has won in the N.C.A.A. tournament before, and it happens to match up well with West Virginia. The Mountaineers press relentlessly and force turnovers, but the Lumberjacks do not make many mistakes. And Coach Brad Underwood will have his team prepared; he was an assistant under West Virginia’s Bob Huggins at Kansas State.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT West Virginia’s aforementioned pressure (9.9 steals a game) is stressful for any team, and it will be applied by players and with an intensity unlike most anything Stephen F. Austin has seen in the Southland Conference.
X FACTOR Stephen F. Austin’s deep bench — namely Clide Geffrard, C.J. Williams, Jared Johnson and Dallas Cameron — will be called upon to handle West Virginia’s constant pressure.
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Gonzaga’s Kyle Wiltjer could pose matchup problems for Seton Hall. Credit Ethan Miller/Getty Images
No. 11 vs. No. 6
Gonzaga Can Beat Seton Hall
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN A lot of pundits are buying high on Seton Hall after it won the Big East tournament. That is fair, but a few words of caution: The Pirates remain young and prone to wild emotional swings. They built large leads against Xavier and Villanova last week and nearly blew both in the second half. Though Seton Hall should be commended for hanging on, Gonzaga is a savvy, tournament-experienced team with a major frontcourt edge.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT Seton Hall is playing with a ton of confidence, led by Isaiah Whitehead, a dynamic offensive talent, and the complementary backcourt mates Khadeen Carrington and Desi Rodriguez, who like to get up and down.
X FACTOR Kyle Wiltjer was a preseason favorite for national player of the year honors. The 6-foot-10 senior, who transferred to Gonzaga from Kentucky, fell under the radar a bit, but he remains a matchup nightmare for teams like Seton Hall.
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Holy Cross is on a run of upsets. Do they have one more in them? Credit Rich Schultz/Associated Press
No. 16 vs. No. 1
And if You’re Feeling Really Risky …
(Southern or Holy Cross Can Beat Oregon)
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN Because it’s about time! No. 1 seeds are 124-0 against No. 16 seeds, and that has included some close games. By contrast, No. 2 seeds have lost seven times to No. 15 seeds in what tends to be the same kind of game. In other words: That perfect record is as much evidence of luck as pure dominance. Oregon is a very good team, but it is the weakest No. 1 seed, according to the committee, and more than a few people would place a couple of lower seeds (Michigan State, Villanova, even No. 4 Kentucky) above it.
Southern and Holy Cross are playing in for the right to have a No. 16 seed for a reason – Holy Cross, which entered its conference tournament as the No. 9 seed, is a particularly fluky N.C.A.A. tournament team – but it’s still five guys a side, two hoops and one ball. Anything can happen.
WHY IT PROBABLY WON’T: Oregon is much, much, much, much better than either team.
X FACTOR The two No. 16 mascots, Holy Cross’s Crusader and Southern’s Lacumba (it’s a jaguar), are much fiercer than Oregon’s Donald Duck knockoff. Will they get to play? Even better, will a medieval crusader or a jaguar get to fight an actual duck?
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