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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (7000)11/21/2002 10:17:24 AM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 95572
 
RE: "BofA would not chase semi equipment rally Banc of America says that sharp declines in chipmakers' profitability due to excess capacity and a collapse in pricing suggests a slow recovery in capex investments; believes the trajectory and size of the semi equipment industry recovery will fall short of the cycles in the 1990s, and the current rally seems to be discounting much of the potential good news of the next several years; firm does not advocate chasing the current rally."

Yesterday, there was a report that utilization for 0.20u and below was 93% and that was 36% of production. They are correct on 2 of 3 forecasts. The recovery will be "slow" by historical measures, the "trajectory...will fall short of the cycles in the 1990s", but the "size", in terms of years of duration and peak to trough ratio, will be the all time record, IMHO.
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