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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (7011)10/8/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas   of 9980
 
I'm wondering how much of this dollar/yen volatility is due to hedge funds liquidating the balance of their yen short positions to salvage any type of profit. it doesn't appear that the fundamentals are driving/repsonsible for this extreme of volatility. thoughts/comments?

Maybe you should consider that the opposite might be true. Perhaps it was the massive hedge-fund participation in these yen-carry trades that pushed the currency to an unrealistic level in the first place and now the panic unwinding is returning the currency to a more “fundamentally” sound price. After all it was the ever-lower level of the yen that made these transactions profitable which attracted more dollar buying that drove the yen still lower. Are you surprised that once the music stops there aren't enough chairs for these funds to sit in? These carry trades have been nothing more than a speculation in the decline of the yen, as yesterday's action made clear.

-Robert
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