>> They found other things to do.
Some can. Others can't and never will. Particularly, given the willingness of taxpayers to carry them.
While in some cases it is a transition to other fields of endeavor, there will be less need for people to do work of many kinds. For example, physicians, though highly trained, will be replaced first by mid-level providers, but ultimately by more self-service and pharmacy-based services, accompanied by more informed patients via the Internet.
It is a matter of time -- and perhaps not a lot of time -- before "Engines of Creation" becomes reality and self-replication is commonplace. We're seeing the genesis of it now with cheap 3d printing, and it is only just beginning to roll. This will radically alter diverse fields including manufacturing, shipping, medicine, and many others. The open source movement, while still limited for software, created a new concept in distribution that will apply to lots of things. The first 3d printed car is under development and while it is more of a motorcycle than a car, it is just a start.
I think you underestimate the effects of these technologies on unemployment and the economy. Of particular concern is the lack of agility in government to deal with emerging technologies, which means that government will lag behind by an even greater timespan in trying to deal with these issues.
The most pressing example, of course, is the fact that the law for Medicare and SS have scarcely changed and is considered almost untouchable, yet life expectancies have increased radically over the period of those programs' existence. This trend is accelerating, and these systems are nowhere near able to deal with people living well into their 100s -- which may be a typical lifespan by 2050. |
