Also....got this bearish piece from AIQ courtesy of another trader in a discussion group
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TECHS DECLINE & SPX STALLS AT OLD HIGH Tuesday's sharp selloff in the Nasdaq
pushed that index back below its resistance barrier at 1640 and its 50 day average.ÿ Could SPX be
showing a head and shoulders top?ÿ It it is, we have a ways down to go (DOWN).ÿ A 9 point plunge in
Oracle (ORCL) to the lowest level since April hurt the techs and came at a bad time for the S&P 500.
Volume on ORCL was 172 MILLION shares to make it the most heavly traded stock on any one day in
the history of the stock market!ÿÿ National Semiconductor (NSM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD),
Texas Instruments (TXN) and Intel (INTC) were among the day's worst losers. The Semiconductor
(SOX) index is nearing its October low. In addition, Digital Equipment (DEC) lost 2 * (42) and is
threatening to break its October 28 low at 41 *. Compaq (CPQ) lost 2 points on heavy volume, thereby
keeping it below chart resistance near 66. Not good for TECHS and the NASDAQ!
S&P DANGEROUSLY OVERBOUGHT The S&P 500 has backed off from its October 8 peak
near 983, with a daily stochastic overbought reading over 90 before turning down. The Dow Industrials
and the Transports are backing off from their October highs near 8150 and 3370 respectively. Only the
safe haven utilities gained on the day.
GOLD: Gold tumbled another $5.00 today to another new low.ÿ As Alvin says, "It can't go any
lower!", but it has been for 6 months or more!
SO WHERE WERE THE WINNERS?ÿ General Electric (GE) was the Dow's top gainer and rose
within a point of a new high. Merck (MRK) closed over 105 for the first time since July and is nearing
that month's peak at 108. Coca Cola (KO) (Malone's Favorite) closed unchanged at 63 9/16. Coke has
slipped back below its October peak at 64, but is sitting on its 200 day average near 63. Any decisive
close below 63 would negate last week's upside breakout.
AIQ is still on a Double Sell Signal although neither is confirmed.ÿ DOW closing lower today
broke back below the trendline drawn across the highs over the past several months indicating we may
still be in a trading range and on the top side at that!ÿ Dow came off the Upper Bollinger Band and this
suggests we may be headed to test the 21d MA around 7800. Advance/Decline line also suggests the
upper end of a trading range. WAL (30-70) and US (14-86) both are bearish and offer no support here
if selling starts.
If you have profits......tighten stops and see what happens....maybe nothing...maybe something more
significant!ÿ Market will dictate and rule.ÿ
Thursday is the Sherman 20 Club meeting.ÿ We have been about 103K in security value for a couple of
weeks.ÿ Let's hope we can hold $100K thru Thursday and break that sentimental barrier!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Checking the Elliot Wavers....depending on the interpretation the Bear Market is either here or nearby.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Finally, the Fibonacci traders say the path for Wednesday is down.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AV, the world is against me on this one. |
