Addi, I agree with most of what you said.
However, I don't have as much faith in the NC concept as some. I do think they will take the X-terminal market to it's grave, and some fixed function PC's and other Dumb tube type apps. Unfortunately, the server in most of these cases will be the one already in place, just with Java apps on the disk. Without a fast network an NC is just a boat anchor, and I don't mean a modem at 28.8. So the home market will never go to NC's, unless we all get T1 to our homes or better.
The real key for Sun, IMHO and little discussed, is other markets not related to PC's at all. Like Cell Phones, your VCR, and other intelligent machines in need of a common programming model. The place I'd really like to see a push from Sun, before Microsoft takes it, is in the Automobile industry. We've been talking for years about Map systems in dashboards, if Java can grab this before Windows CE goes after it, that would be excellent for Sun. There are quite a few computers in cars already, I don't think Intel is after the lowend CPU market so that leaves it to Cyrix or AMD, but Sun's Java chips are even better IMHO.
Sun's job as I see it (relative to Java):
1. Don't let Java get fragmented.
2. Cede the desktop software battle to others, low margin anyway.
3. Look for areas desktops don't go, Cars, Cell Phones, VCR's, etc.
4. Be the only vendor of Java VM in silicon.
5. Create great development tools for all those Java chips. |
