Syria's turn
As Washington beats the drums, Egypt finally gets around to visiting Damascus
cairotimes.com
Khaled Ezzelarab
"Mubarak made an unannounced visit to Damascus to discuss US threats of sanctions against Syria
On 20 April, President Hosni Mubarak made an unannounced visit to Syria for talks with President Bashar Al Assad to discuss Iraq and the increasing tensions between Washington and Damascus. Having not yet overcome the challenges posed by the Anglo-American war on Iraq, Egyptian diplomacy was met with a new test–that of the increasing American threats against Syria.
US officials seemed to be turning an eye on Syria as early as the second week of the war on Iraq. Damascus was accused of smuggling military supplies and equipment to Iraq, and then later harboring members of the former Iraqi leadership, possessing chemical and biological weapons and supporting terrorist groups. Moreover, remarks were made about the oppressive nature of the Syrian regime, which comes in the context of mounting Arab fears that the US might be planning to strongly interfere in the internal affairs of Arab states under the banner of democratization.
Tension did not only take the form of verbal warnings: the US applied economic pressure too when it decided to cut off an oil pipeline running from Iraq into Syria.
The conflict between the world’s superpower and the "Heart of Arabism"–as many Syrians like to refer to their country–raised fears in the Arab world and put Egyptian policymakers in a critical situation.
Particularly worrying from an Egyptian point of view are the American demands that Syria should dispose of its chemical and biological weapons. Neither Syria nor Egypt signed international conventions to control chemical and biological weapons, and these relatively easy-to-acquire weapons are regarded as the only feasible option to counterbalance Israel’s nuclear arsenal.
According to an Egyptian diplomatic source, who preferred to remain anonymous, Egypt would be faced with an undesirable precedent if Damascus gives in to US pressures on this issue. Legally there is no clear-cut obligation on Syria to get rid of its weapons because it is not a signatory of the conventions. Moreover, unlike the case with Iraq which had Security Council Resolution 687, there are no international decisions calling for the disarmament of Syria.
Arguments of "irresponsible behavior" that were used against Saddam Hussein do not apply to the Syrian regime, which did not engage in any uncalculated adventures. "We are worried that if Syria is forced to abandon its arms, the US would start pursuing a policy of disarming all Arab countries of their strategic deterrence weapons," said the diplomatic source, "This would constitute a threat to Egypt."
Another source of danger to Egyptian foreign policy is that the Bush administration seems to have its mind set on taking things into hand. A cornerstone of Egyptian foreign policy is based on being a regional leader that secures the superpower’s interests in the Arab world. A new US policy determined on settling regional matters through direct American intervention would have serious repercussions on Egypt’s prominence and strategic value.
However, analysts point out that Egypt has hardly been overenthusiastic about standing up to American pressures on Syria. Mubarak did not meet the Syrian president until 20 April, more than 10 days after the conflict had reached heated levels. Meanwhile, Mubarak had met with King Abdullah II of Jordan, head of a regime that has deep controversies with Syria’s Al Assad. In a political environment that is highly sensitive to such gestures, this is unlikely to have been a coincidence, political observers say.
The relationship between the Egyptian and Syrian leadership cannot be described as being too warm. The pan Arab anti-US policy discourse used by a young Al Assad, particularly in Arab summits, has not been received with great pleasure by the moderate-line Egyptian leadership.
Recently, Cairo was provoked by anti-Egyptian demonstrations in Damascus. The Syrian authorities were perceived as being lenient in dealing with the masses that gathered in front of the Egyptian Embassy to demonstrate against Egyptian policy towards the war in Iraq.
Perhaps the Egyptian government was simply avoiding taking a position that could be regarded as being too strongly against an American administration that is intoxicated with its victory in Iraq and appears to be drafting plans for reshaping the region.
Apart from possibly being a slap on the wrist of the hardnosed Syrian leadership, American pressure on Syria might be viewed by the Egyptian government as potentially useful in the long-term. Iman Hamdi, an expert on Middle East political affairs at the American University in Cairo (AUC), believes that there is a general conviction among policymakers in Egypt that American threats against Syria would not develop into a full-scale military operation.
"The Americans will use political and economic pressure to persuade the Syrians to carry out certain demands, particularly to end support to Palestinian and Lebanese militant groups and to adopt a more compromising position in the peace process," she said. This being the case, she added, Egypt might not feel pressured to hold an extra strong position in support of Syria. "At the end of the day, a reduction in Syrian militancy and a generally more moderate and stable mood in the region would be favored by the Egyptian government."
According to sources available to the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the American allegations are not completely wrong. "There are indications that Syria provided arms to the Iraqi resistance during the war, and that it is now a safe haven for second- and third- line former Iraqi leadership," said the diplomatic source.
What is known for sure at least is that Syria has openly accepted Muhammad Al Douri in Damascus. The representative of the former Iraqi regime at the UN was not one of the "wanted" Iraqi figures, but the American administration had specifically demanded that he must not be accepted in Syria.
"Such actions will only complicate matters further," said the diplomatic source. "Our official line is to advise Syria not to provoke the US." This was probably the message Mubarak conveyed to Al Assad on 20 April. "Do what you can to avoid antagonizing them."
Whether there was an Egyptian mediation effort with the US or not is unclear. Diplomatic sources refused to talk about a "specific mediation mechanism" that was adopted by Egypt, reported Al Hayat newspaper. A result of Egyptian diplomacy or not, the Americans have started using a softer tone. President Bush de-escalated the campaign of warnings the day of the Egyptian visit, saying that he was pleased to see signs of cooperation from Syria in the hunt for senior aides to Saddam Hussein.
It is too early to assume that the problem is over. The list of American demands will still be pushed for by Colin Powell on his visit to Damascus next week or early May. With reports from Washington about "an ambitious plan to further transform the volatile region," according to the LA Times, it is likely that this is only the beginning."
Bush administration continues its good cop, bad cop routine with the people of the Middle East, going so far as to send dark skinned people to do the presentation.
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