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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 689.52

-0.3%

4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who started this subject	3/1/2001 9:10:30 PM
From: jmootx	of 99985

even if everyone 'thinks' PE's should be 10-17 Simply not going to happen tomorrow. The market is done 'crashing'. Not to say NDX won't retest---but multi-year trading ranges will eventually absorb those high PE's. In other words, I could see the NDX trading between 1800 and 2700-3000 for as many as 7 years. That is exactly what happened after the 1973-74 crash--the Dow traded between 550-1000 for seven years. The Nikkei is just now hitting 15 year lows nearly 12 years after the crash there. It was at 19000 last Fall. And Japan has/had many more fundamental problems than us--real estate problems, banking crises, and the like. Even in the worst case scenario for the US--like the 1929-1932, It took over three years to retrace 90%---and the NDX hit 65% gone in under 12 months. Learn to simply mark your spots and trade this devil for several more years. Mark my words a good bear rally is about to start.

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