Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.76

+1.1%

Dec 8 4:00 PM EST

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To: zonder who wrote (7108)	11/26/2002 9:50:03 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95536

I think a good case can be made for the entire semi equipment group being overvalued. So NVLS should fall with the group which will follow the SOX down if the SOX falls. In other words there is no real reason to single out NVLS from the entire group based on fundamental analysis. It will fall or rise along with the rest of the stocks associated with the SOX. All these stocks are overvalued on a traditional basis. The outlook is poor but as the INTC upgrade points out today there may be some hope for improving fundamentals. If INTC makes more money they could raise their cap ex. The market and the semiconductors in particular are overbought but this can and most likely will get even more overbought. This has been a very strong technical rally. The bulls will argue that the fundamental justification for the rally will be revealed soon enough. The bears will argue that this has been nothing more than another bear market rally. I think its going to take a while longer to find that out for sure. Why not wait to short until the VXN is under 40, the VIX hits 20, the equity put to call ratio makes a few closes below .50 and the difference between bullish and bearish investment advisors is 30% with the bulls really pounding the table? Or do you think we have already topped out on this rally and why? RtS

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