Long article...
A Critique of the 2006 EIA International Energy Outlook
Posted by Stuart Staniford on Wednesday June 21, 2006 at 4:34 AM EST
Freddy Hutter kindly emailed me to point out that the US EIA released the 2006 International Energy Outlook (IEO) yesterday morning. This is an annual exercise they have been doing since 1985 to project energy supply/demand out into the future - currently to 2030.
As you can see - the future is bright to the EIA, unless perhaps you own beachfront or stormbelt property, in which case expect lots of wind and water. It will perhaps come as no surprise that I don't agree with their projections. Below are some critiques (mainly confining myself to the oil supply issues - others may want to take on the other fuels)......
However, in order to make up the gap required now that OPEC cannot be the main solution to future growth in supply, severe strain is being put on the rest of the projection assumptions. For example, consider the assumptions about the North Sea:
In the IEO2006 reference case, the decline in North Sea production is slowed slightly relative to past outlooks, based on the implementation of strategies for redeveloping mature fields. Production from Norway, OECD Europe’s largest producer, is expected to peak at about 3.6 million barrels per day in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 million barrels per day in 2030 with the maturing of some of its larger and older fields. The United Kingdom sector is expected to produce about 2.2 million barrels per day in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2030.
What planet are they living on?
UK production is already far below 2.2mbpd, and it's on track to decline to 1.4mbpd in the next year or two, never mind 2030. Likewise, it's hard to see Norway doing 3.6mbpd this year, and very hard to see production holding up above 2.2mbpd for the next 25 years. These assumptions seem ludicrous.
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