Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (7114)	11/26/2002 11:18:05 AM
From: SpecialK	Read Replies (1) of 95530

Gottfried, I saw your chart before. It's pretty helpful for visualizing buying and selling opportunities. Would VXN be a better volatility indicator on the chart? How low do you think VIX will go before it bottoms out? From the last two market tops, it's gone to 20 or so but prior to that it looks like 25. Your question: The combination of VIX tops and bpcompq bottoms made a fair buy signal IN THE PAST. What happens when we start getting higher compq lows? Answer: I'm not sure if the question is that will this be a good signal in a bull market, as it was in the bear (IN THE PAST). If it is, then YES, it will still be a good signal. The proof would be to back-test to mid-90s til now. If the question was as we make higher highs/ higher lows, then I believe the the VIX range will shift lower and get smaller, e.g. 15-35 vs. the current range of 20-50+. It's possible we don't get the clear field positions of rising above 30 to be on offense, etc. I think volatility up and down is here to stay until the interest in the market dies. Ketan

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