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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (7135)10/11/1999 12:35:00 AM
From: RCMac   of 9719
 
Rick,

No apology needed or appropriate. I agree with DAK, Harold, tommysdad, biowa, et al on this point.

Although my attention was drawn to GLIA by your posts, I didn't buy it without my own pretty detailed DD, and anybody who did was both foolish and deaf to your repeated warnings that people damn well better do their own DD.

Put another way, everybody's decisions on GLIA are their own responsibility, not yours. We all got blindsided by this problem.

Plus there is the fact that the stock has gotten IMO amazingly cheap in relation to the value of its approved product, let alone the other Adcons (aiming at a market of above 7 million operations annually in the US alone), 2331/Perceptin, etc.

Although management has dented the stock through their miscues and bunker-hiding impulses, that seems likely to dissipate when the import ban gets lifted, the Ohio plant comes on line next spring or early summer, 2331 gets partnered or enters Ph2 unpartnered, etc.

Not in defense of, but a word of a little sympathy for, management. It seems likely that they were uncommunicative to shareholders out of concern about ruffling the FDA; if they have to choose between pissing off the FDA and pissing off you, me and DAK, they had better be cautious about the FDA and worry later about angering us. Some would even forcefully defend them in the course they chose - see Neuroinvestment's #3997 on the Yahoo board: messages.yahoo.com

I agree they're wrong in the way they balanced the competing interests when they made this decision. (1) Under the securities laws they must disclose material facts; the fact that their only approved product was banned from import was plainly a material fact; so they were legally required to disclose that fact, at some stage (depending on circumstances not all of which I know), and I think earlier than Friday at 4:30. And (2) they could have balanced the shareholder-communication requirement with the don't-ruffle-FDA interest, with some brief statement of the fact of the FDA ban order, and a statement that GLIA is diligently cooperating with FDA and acting to correct the problem. But this was a misjudgment, not an act of serious dishonesty.

Yeah, they fouled up, and we sure shouldn't have learned about the ban order from the company's unscrupulous enemies on Yahoo. But this will likely pass, the company will have learned a few things about being a public company (and may learn some of them in detail in the company of lawyers), and eventually (a bit more slowly, possibly) the value of the pipeline will emerge (something these guys appear to be good at bringing about).

My $0.02. But if the stock drops some more tomorrow I'll be picking up some more, although I'd thought I had my full position.

--Bob
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