Okun’s leaky-bucket experiment March 3, 2011 at 10:00 am Austin Frakt  	 	    	 Okun  offers a neat hypothetical to help locate one’s equity-efficiency  boundary. He wrote this in 1975, so all dollar amounts are far below  what would make sense today. They’re 1974 dollars. In brackets, I’ve  inflated them to 2009 dollars (a dollar in 1974 is worth $4.30 today).  This is not the same things as recomputing the boundaries and average  incomes of the bottom 20 percent and top 5 percent of the income  distribution. Still, I think the exercise is worth considering.  [C]onsider the American families who make up the bottom  20 percent of the income distribution. Their after-tax incomes in 1974  were less than $7,000 [$30,100], averaging about $5,000 [$21,500]. Now  consider the top 5 percent of families in the income pyramid; they had  after-tax incomes ranging upward from about $28,000 [$120,400], and  averaging about $45,000 [$193,500]. A proposal is made to levy an added  tax averaging $4,000 [$17,200] (about 9 percent) on the income of the  affluent families in an effort to aid the low-income families. Since the  low-income group I selected has four times as many families as the  affluent group, that should, in principle, finance a $1,000 [$4,300]  grant for the average low-income family. However, the program has an  unsolved technological problem: the money must be carried from the rich  to the poor in a leaky bucket. Some of it will simply disappear in  transit, so the poor will not receive all the money that is taken from  the rich. The average poor family will get less than $1,000 [$4,300],  while the average rich family gives up $4,000 [$17,200]. […]
   I want you to decide how much leakage you would accept and still  support [this plan]. Suppose 10 percent leaks out; that would leave $900  [$3,870] for the average poor family instead of the potential $1,000  [$4,300]. Should society still make the switch? If 50 percent leaks out?  75 percent? […] Where would you draw the line? Your answer cannot be  right or wrong. […]
   Of course, the leak represents an inefficiency. The inefficiencies of  real-world redistribution include the adverse effects on the economic  incentives of the rich and the poor, and the administrative costs of  tax-collection and transfer programs.
   A more stark thought experiment trading equity and efficiency is hard  to imagine. Think about it. (Okun says he’d accept up to 60 percent  leakage.)
  theincidentaleconomist.com |