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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (71613)10/12/2006 12:35:25 AM
From: Yulya  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
In May 1994, McCain catalogued all the North Korean threats and violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that led to the Agreed Framework and argued against any further concessions:

fas.org

[That agreement kept the plutonium operation on ice until the end of 2002.]

North Korea began a secret uranium enrichment program after 1995 and never gave up working on nuclear weapons:

fas.org

[President Bush came to office wanting to pull out of the agreement and did so when evidence surfaced suggesting that the North Koreans were secretly trying to enrich uranium (a separate path to the bomb).]

You fail to note that this happened just after the North confirmed U.S. intelligence reports that it had a clandestine enrichment program – one that violated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (they later withdrew from the treaty) and the Agreed Framework.

Back then, McCain had argued that the failure to demand the speedy removal of the fuel rods from the North was a major strategic flaw in the ’94 deal and that leaving them in place would allow the dictatorship to kick the inspectors out and reprocess the rods at a time of its choosing. Here’s what he wrote in the Los Angeles Times in 1994:

"Using sticks such as their threatened expulsion of IAEA inspectors, North Korea has consistently intimidated Administration diplomacy. To divert the United States from punishing his violations of the NPT, Kim Il Sung has raised, then withdrawn his stick, masking his forbearance in the disguise of a carrot…."

"In fact, North Korea has offered no real concession. The fuel rods that it would use to make weapons-grade plutonium cannot be used until they are less radioactive. The reactor cannot be refueled until the rods have cooled. North Korea's nuclear program is, of physical necessity, frozen…."

"Although the Administration may attempt to obscure a failure, we will reach a moment when it is apparent to all. That will be when North Korea begins reprocessing the fuel now in cooling ponds into weapons-grade plutonium."

[you don't make agreements with parties you don't trust, like the North Koreans]

I agree. The agreement was merely a substitute for taking action and made the inevitable outcome of a nuke an absolute certainty.

Seems a little humor now would not be such a bad idea:

youtube.com
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